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If you don't have stocks in your hand, don't worry in the morning, just wait for the new cycle to start, confirm the resonance theme, and get on the bus in various postures. In this emotional fragile stage, the most taboo is to follow the trend and go up to the top, regardless of whether it is up or down, we must maintain our own judgment, do not follow suit, make a good plan, and then implement it. Remember one thing, no market will end in a day or two.Secondly, the change from "prudent" to "moderately loose" in previous years is a major change in the caliber of monetary policy. Moderate easing was last proposed in 2010, and our caliber in the past 14 years has been consistent and steady. No matter how radical the interest rate cuts and RRR cuts are, no matter how loose they look from the behavior, they just don't let go. This is the first change in 14 years, with emphasis on the first time.First of all, the word "positive" in previous years was changed to "more positive". The last time this statement was put forward was in 2020, and everyone knew what happened at that time. This time, I am more active and spend money in the market.

This is beyond my expectation. Although I maintain the view that A shares are entering a bull market, my friends who have been watching it know that I am pessimistic.When the hesitant funds and investors exclaimed that the cow was coming, the big funds were lured to 3800, and then fell back to 3500 in January next year.How to judge whether it is less than expected? It is very simple. If the high-end large-cap stocks such as banks, oil and coal rise, it will be bad. If the large-cap stocks rise and the index rises (28 differentiation), but the small and medium-cap stocks do not rise, it will also be bad. This is the big money to pull the large-cap stocks up to cover the shipment of individual stocks. And vice versa.

How to judge whether it is less than expected? It is very simple. If the high-end large-cap stocks such as banks, oil and coal rise, it will be bad. If the large-cap stocks rise and the index rises (28 differentiation), but the small and medium-cap stocks do not rise, it will also be bad. This is the big money to pull the large-cap stocks up to cover the shipment of individual stocks. And vice versa.Far more than expected, the bull market is slower.In my opinion, if the meeting on the next 11-12 days falls short of expectations (in fact, it is enough), it will falsely pull down the index, then generally fall, fall to around 3330, and then draw 3350, and at the end of the month, it will reach around 3230 on the May line;